Discount, unwinding
Notes · MSTR · 2026-05-130.73× on April 7.0.94× today — the second-longest mNAV discount MSTR has run, still open.
mNAV discount episodes of 30 days or more, MSTR history.
On 2025-12-10, MSTR’s market capitalization fell below the value of the bitcoin on its balance sheet. The discount widened through the spring — to a trough of 0.73× mNAV on 2026-04-07 — before beginning to compress. As of 2026-05-04, the company trades at 0.94×: a market capitalization of $61.3B against a bitcoin NAV of $65.1B.
The episode is in its 145th day and counting. Only one prior discount episode in MSTR’s history has run longer — 180 days, from January through July of 2022, during the worst stretch of the last bear cycle. By duration, this is already the second-longest mNAV discount on record.
Three prior episodes of thirty days or more have fully ended. N=3 is not a base rate — it is three histories laid side by side. Across those three, measured from the day mNAV crossed back above 1.0×, MSTR’s median forward return was −2% at thirty days, −7% at sixty, −13% at ninety. Bitcoin’s was −6%, −16%, −12%. By 180 days the median had “inverted” — +49% for MSTR, +26% for BTC — but that was two analogs lifting the median while the third extended the 2022 bear.
A discount is data, not a thesis. We are tracking it.