Vol. I — No. 1The First IssueSummer MMXXVI
Hysteresis Research迟滞研究
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The prior, conditioned

Notes · BTC · 2026-05-02

The historical prior pointed short. The actual move was a +3.7% squeeze.

Fig. — Returns by entry regime

5-day post-FOMC returns by entry regime. The pooled mean averages two opposite distributions.

The pooled FOMC prior averages two opposite regimesThe pooled FOMC prior averages two opposite regimes-12-9-6-30+3+6-9.2%Crowded longentry (n=4)+2.5%Otherentry (n=4)-3.5%Pooled(n=8)+2.9%2026-04-29actual5-day post-FOMC returnHYSTERESIS RESEARCH

Between April 2025 and April 2026, BTC moved through eight FOMC meetings. Pooled, the five-day post-meeting return averaged −3.5%. Mechanically, the rule said to short the next one. 2026-04-29 was the next one.

Four of those eight events had been entered with crowded longs — funding paying premium, open interest extended, price near the range high. Those four dominated the pooled mean. Sliced by entry positioning, the drift sign flips.

2026-04-29 entered with the opposite profile. Funding wobbled near zero. Top traders sat position-tilted short. Spot was mid-range. The relevant conditional prior was a squeeze, not a flush. BTC peaked at +3.70% on hour 44 after the print.

A mean over a mixed sample is not a probability. It is a question about which sample applies.