Shallower, so far
Notes · BTC · 2026-05-13−35% at day 219. The prior two cycles, at the same elapsed time, sat between −60% and −67%.
Peak-aligned drawdown trajectories. Current cycle traced through day 219.
Two completed bears — Bitcoin has lived through two completed bear cycles since it became a tradable instrument. The 2017 peak gave way to a drawdown of −83% over 364 days; the 2021 peak gave way to −77% over 378 days. The current cycle peaked on 2025-10-06 at $124,628. Today, 219 days later, BTC trades at $80,630 — a drawdown of −35% from that peak.
At the same elapsed time, the 2017 cycle was at −60%; the 2021 cycle was at −67%. The median of the two prior instances was −63%. The current cycle’s drawdown is 28 percentage points shallower than that median.
N=2 precludes any statistical inference. The current cycle’s peak is not confirmed as the final bear-market peak; if BTC reclaims a new all-time high, this cycle has no bear phase. The interim low, on 2026-02-05 at $62,868, is provisional — price could re-test or exceed it. None of this is a forecast. It is an observation about how three drawdowns measure against one another, at one moment in time.
Two prior cycles are not a base rate. They are two stories.